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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."