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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.